Analytic Decision Support for Public Health Emergencies

Public health emergencies require planning and response activities. These activities require analytical frameworks for considering the complicated and at times non-linear risk factors and interactions within particular scenarios whether they be Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, or pandemic infectious diseases. In order to systematically consider these factors the Division of Analytic Decision Support in the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA/ADS) assists in providing and developing decision support tools and analyses.

August 23, 2017

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Modeling of Time Series of Local Telephone Triage Data for Syndromic Surveillance

National telephone health advice service data have been investigated as a source for syndromic surveillance of influenza-like illness and gastroenteritis . Providing a high level of coverage, the system might serve as an early outbreak detection tool. We have previously found that telephone triage service data of acute gastroenteritis was superior to web queries as well as over-the-counter pharmacy sales of anti-diarrhea medication to detect large water- and foodborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal illness in Sweden during the years 2007–2011 (4).

August 22, 2018

Increasing Outbreak Detection Power by Data Transformations

Syndromic surveillance involves the analysis of time series of health indicators to identify changes in disease patterns. To this end, statistical modeling is used to reduce systematic data variation. Still, there is variation that cannot be accounted for in this approach, e.g. mass gatherings, extreme weather and other high-profile events. To filter sporadic events, data transformation can be applied, e.g. proportion data from correlated data streams (Peter, Najmi and Burkom, 2011; Reis, Kohane and Mandl, 2007). However, we lack systematic criteria for applying data transformations, e.g.

April 28, 2019

Prioritization: a difficult word, and technique, to master. A review of prioritization approaches to multi-dimensional problems in health settings

In a context of finite resources, multiple needs and growing demands of organizational accountability, there has been an increase in the number of multi-dimensional prioritization exercises (of diseases, interventions, etc) in the health arena. Not all of them following robust methodologies. The seminar will explore robust techniques for the prioritization of alternatives in health settings.

September 25, 2017

Detecting Changes in Chief Complaint Word Count: Effects on Syndromic Surveillance

The New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) receives daily ED data from 49 of NYC’s 52 hospitals, representing approximately 95% of ED visits citywide. Chief complaint (CC) is categorized into syndrome groupings using text recognition of symptom key-words and phrases. Hospitals are not required to notify the DOHMH of any changes to procedures or health information systems (HIS). Previous work noticed that CC word count varied over time within and among EDs.

March 02, 2018

Identification and Assessment of Public Health Surveillance Gaps under the IHR (2005)

Under the revised International Health Regulations (IHR [2005]) one of the eight core capacities is public health surveillance. In May 2012, despite a concerted effort by the global community, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported out that a significant number of member states would not achieve targeted capacity in the IHR (2005) surveillance core capacity. Currently, there is no model to identify and measure these gaps in surveillance performance. Likewise, there is no toolset to assess interventions by cost and estimate the ROI.

May 17, 2018

Challenges and Opportunities in Routine Time Series Analysis of Surveillance Data

ECDC long term strategies for surveillance include analysis of trends of communicable disease of public health importance for European Union countries to guide public health actions. The European Surveillance System (TESSy) holds data on 49 communicable diseases reported by 30 countries for at least the past five years. To simplify time related analysis using surveillance data, ECDC launched a project to enable descriptive and routine TSA without the need for complex programming.


May 21, 2018

Collaborative Automation Reliably Remediating Erroneous Conclusion Threats (CARRECT)

Analyses produced by epidemiologists and public health practitioners are susceptible to bias from a number of sources including missing data, confounding variables, and statistical model selection. It often requires a great deal of expertise to understand and apply the multitude of tests, corrections, and selection rules, and these tasks can be time-consuming and burdensome. To address this challenge, Aptima began development of CARRECT, the Collaborative Automation Reliably Remediating Erroneous Conclusion Threats system.

May 22, 2018

National Collaborative for Bio-Preparedness

The National Collaborative for Bio-Preparedness (NCB-Prepared) was established in 2010 to create a biosurveillance resource to enhance situational awareness and emergency preparedness. This jointinstitutional effort has drawn on expertise from the University of North Carolina- Chapel Hill, North Carolina State University, and SAS Institute, leveraging North Carolina’s role as a leader in syndromic surveillance, technology development and health data standards. As an unprecedented public/private alliance, they bring the flexibility of the private sector to support the public sector.

June 25, 2018

Syndromic Surveillance for Outbreak Detection and Investigation

A large part of the applied research on syndromic surveillance targets seasonal epidemics, e.g. influenza, winter vomiting disease, rotavirus and RSV, in particular when dealing with preclinical indicators, e.g. web traffic. The research on local outbreak surveillance is more limited. Two studies of teletriage data (NHS Direct) have shown positive and negative results respectively. Studies of OTC pharmacy sales have reported similar equivocal performance. As far as we know, no systematic comparison of data sources with respect to multiple point-source outbreaks has so far been published.

July 12, 2018


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