Data-Driven Computational Model to Assess the Risk of Epidemics in Global Mass Gatherings

Global Mass gatherings (MGs) such as Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup, and Hajj (Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah), attract millions of people from different countries. The gathering of a large population in a proximity facilitates transmission of infectious diseases. Attendees arrive from different geographical areas with diverse disease history and immune responses. The associated travel patterns with global events can contribute to a further disease spread affecting a large number of people within a short period and lead to a potential pandemic.

January 25, 2018

Modeling Disease Surveillance and Assessing its Effectiveness for Detection of Acute Respiratory Outbreaks in Resource-Limited Settings

A U.S. Department of Defense program is underway to assess health surveillance in resource-poor settings and to evaluate the Early Warning Outbreak Reporting System. This program has included several information-gathering trips, including a trip to Lao PDR in September, 2006.



This modeling effort will provide guidance for policy and planning decisions in developing countries in the event of an acute respiratory illness epidemic, particularly an outbreak with pandemic potential.

July 30, 2018

Predicting Probabilities of Flu Vaccination and Commuting Methods Having Elevated Flu Transmission Probabilities in New York City

Aerial transmission and direct contact are important factors for flu. Consequently, close contact with large groups of people, such as during mass transit, present opportunities for transmission. One protective method that decreases the probabilities of becoming ill is vaccination. The potential health impact of  erminating subway service during a flu epidemic depends on both the potential for transmission and vaccination rates among riders. Mass transit, a major method of transit in NYC, exhibits a non-random distribution of riders based on demographics and socio-economic status.

July 30, 2018

A Nationwide Geo-Referenced Synthesized Agent Database for Infectious Disease Models

Our objective in this research is to develop a national, geospatially-explicit set of human agents for use in agent-based models. [The term 'agents', in agent-based modeling, refers to computerized entities that represent individuals who interact with each other and their environment.]

July 30, 2018

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