Assessing Risk for Emerging Arboviral Disease Use Case

Description: 

Materials associated with the Analytic Solutions for Real-Time Biosurveillance: Assessing Risk for Emerging Arboviral Disease consultancy held June 14-15, 2016 at the Arizona Department of Health Services.

Problem Summary

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses are emerging and expanding public health threats in recent years, all of which are spread through the bite of infected Aedes spp. mosquitoes. Arizona is at elevated risk for travel-associated cases of disease due to the proximity and high volume of travel to Mexico and other countries, where transmission of all three diseases is ongoing. The combination of frequent travelers and the presence of Aedes aegypti in multiple regions of the state raises the level of concern for sporadic local transmission of these diseases as well as sustained endemicity.

Identifying the areas in Arizona at highest risk for developing locally acquired cases is critical to facilitate rapid response, strengthen public health actions, and reduce the risk of additional disease spread.

Attachments

  • Use case summary
  • Consultancy agenda
  • List of attendees

*The Arizona Department of Health and Human Services has requested that the final report not be made publicly available. If you are interested in viewing the report or following this group's activity, please contact syndromicsurveillance@azdhs.gov or check out the Fight the Bite Chapter on the ISDS website.

References

On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States.  Monaghan AJ, Morin CW, Steinhoff DF, Wilhelmi O, Hayden M, Quattrochi DA, Reiskind M, Lloyd AL, Smith K, Schmidt CA, Scalf PE, Ernst K. 2016. On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States. PLOS Current Outbreaks, Edition 1. 

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks. Woolhouse M. 2011. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 366: 2045 - 2054.

Climate change and infectious disease. Patz JA, Githeko Ak, McCarty JP, Hussein S, Confalonieri U, de Wet N. "Climate change and infectious disease." Climate Change and Human Health. Ed. McMichael AJ. Ed. Campbell-Lendrum DH. Ed. Corovalán F. Ed. Ebi KI. Ed. Githeko A. Ed. Scheraga JD. Ed. Woodward A. 2003. 103-132. Print.

Climate and Dengue Transmission: Evidence and Implications. Morin CW, Comrie AC, Ernst K. 2013. Climate and Dengue Transmission: Evidence and Implications. Environmental Health Perspectives, 121: 1264 - 1272. 

Correlating Remote Sensing Data with the Abundances of Pupae of the Dengue Virus Mosquito, Moreno-Madriñán MJ, Crosson WL, Eisen L, Estes SM, Estes Jr. MG, Hayden M, Hemmings SN, Irwin DE, Lozano-Fuentes S, Monaghan AJ, Quattrochi D, Welsh- Rodriguez CM, Zielinkshi-Gutierrez E. 2014. Correlating Remote Sensing Data with the Abundances of Pupare of the Dengue Virus Mosquito, Aedes aegypti, in Central Mexico. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf., 3:732-749. 

Texas Arboviral Risk. Castro L, Chen X, Dimitrov NB, Ancel Meyers L. (2015). Texas Arboviral Risk (Prepared by the University of Texas at Austin in response to DSHS Contract 2015-047259-001). 

Articles for Second Pre-Consultancy Call

Attaway, et al. Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools)

Attaway, et al. Assessing the methods needed for improved dengue mapping: a SWOT analysis 

Louis, et al. Modeling tools for dengue risk mapping - a systematic review

Monaghan, et al. On the seasonal Occurance and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States

Ho, S.H., Speldewinde, P., Cook, A. A Bayesian Belief Network for Murray Valley encephalitis virus risk assessment in Western Australia

Primary Topic Areas: 
Original Publication Year: 
2016
Event/Publication Date: 
June, 2016

March 23, 2017

Contact Us

NSSP Community of Practice

Email: syndromic@cste.org

 

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